Deep Dive Into Contribution Margin and Why It's Important in Marketing

Nathan: 00:00:11

Contribution margin and net profit is the be all end all

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for a lot of different angles

when it comes to marketing.

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it's just hard to essentially, tell

the algorithm to optimize for it.

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You have to be aware of the actual

financial side of business too.

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We're in a very different position.

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We shouldn't be scaling acquisition.

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We should be fixing acquisition

first and potentially we should

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be changing our retention

strategy so we're not discounting.

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Hey, how's it going everyone?

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So upon popular request,

we have Nathan back here.

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going more into the technical

side of things that hurt my

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brain, but also helped me learn.

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so yeah, anything you want to say in a

little introduction back to the platform?

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I don't think we made a

video for us so late either.

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So it's cool.

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been a little while.

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no, thanks for having me.

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I'm looking forward to this one.

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It'll be, it'll be good talking

about CFO, CMO kind of topics again.

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So this is going to be a very technical

video from what we've been discussing.

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and so Nathan has a lot

of good insights on.

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how CFOs think and what are

some areas of improvement.

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were talking a little bit about

contribution margin, and this is

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one of those topics that is being

discussed more and more, however,

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there's a lot of variables to that.

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it's not as simple as just saying,

Hey, this contributed to this.

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There's so many other factors that

are outside of marketing, that we

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don't really have control over.

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So measuring the right ones are, Obviously

the most important set of things.

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So yeah, I'll let you jump right into it.

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I think tracking contribution

margin for most e com operators

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is the best North star.

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You can look at MEI, you can look at CAC,

but at the end of the day, contribution

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margin is going to tell you whether

you're covering your OPEX expenses or not.

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And then I'm probably going to start

talking about contribution margin now.

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And some people are watching

going, what even is that?

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So let me define it.

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And let's zoom out because when people

say contribution margin, they're often

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talking about different things because.

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There's actually three

contribution margins.

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There's contribution

margin one, two, and three.

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One is the same as product cost.

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So you could almost look at it as gross

margin as well, where it's just the

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price of the product minus the cost

to buy the product from the factory.

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So that's contribution margin one.

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That's really what I'm referring to there.

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contribution margin two

is the cost of delivery.

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So it's the price of the

product minus the cost.

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But also minus the cost to deliver it.

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So that's the shipping fees, the 3PL fees,

and then the transaction fees as well.

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So now you're starting to

get lower down the P& L.

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And then contribution margin three

is where you also take away CAC.

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So you take away the cost

to acquire the customer.

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And now you're all the way down at

the bottom of the P& L where the

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only last thing to minus off is

OPEX, and then you've got net profit.

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And so contribution margin three

is what most e com operators should

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be tracking on a day to day basis.

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And you can do that very easily using.

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Really any software you can use

data studio, and it's just basic

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equations on minusing off average cogs.

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You can pull in cogs from Shopify.

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And so you can actually

have cogs being dynamic.

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You can have average shipping,

average transaction fee assumptions.

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And so you can see what your contribution

margin is on a day to day basis.

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Where it starts to get even deeper and

where you can draw more insights is

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when you start to look at where you

can gain efficiencies and contribution

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margin at all different levels within

the business, And this is where, as a

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marketing partner or an e com operator,

you can look at contribution margin at

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the product level, or the order level, or

you could look at the time level, which

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is what I was just talking about, and you

can start to figure out, are we driving

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orders that aren't even profitable?

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Or are we driving orders that

have 5 profit or 1 profit

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on them, but our cap's 30?

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And so we're not actually driving any

incremental profit to the business

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because the bottom 20%, quartile of

orders are just negative cash flowing.

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you can track contribution

margin one at the product level.

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And that's what I would recommend to

most e com operators do is what I'd

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recommend most agencies do if you onboard

a new client, which is to have a basic

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Excel sheet, have all of the products.

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And now this is going to be

really difficult if they have

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60, 000 products, Let's assume

that they have 30 to 50 products.

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You can very easily pull all product

titles and then have associated cogs.

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pull out a basic price export out of

Shopify or whatever platform they're on.

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And then you can see what the

gross margin is per product.

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And that's going to be really

indicative of where you should be

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allocating budget, across campaigns.

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And that's why understanding

contribution margin across all of

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these levels is really important

in the actual campaign creation.

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Because I know one thing that Sol8 talks

about a little bit, I talk about it quite

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a bit, which is that anytime that you can

consolidate campaign structures, you're

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generally going to see better performance.

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Because you're going to have tighter

allocation of conversion data, which is

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going to enable better customer modeling.

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And so you'll see better performance,

but the issue there is that you give

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away all of this control to Google.

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And so you do still want a degree of

segmentation in your Google campaigns.

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You do still want a degree of

segmentation in your Facebook campaigns,

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but it has to be very strategical.

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Based on contribution margin in most

instances, which is, do we have products

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with 20 percent margins and then we

have products with 80 percent margins.

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Okay.

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We probably shouldn't be trading them the

same and we probably shouldn't be having

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a blanket target row as across them.

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in terms of implementation and all

that, so would you say that it's a

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good idea then to, let's say a client

has like a thousands and thousands of

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products, So they're just, breaking

down every single bit in a spreadsheet,

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they're going to look at it and

just, their head's going to blow up.

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Would you say like a good starting point

or something you've seen is like starting

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with for example, the top sellers and

then working your way down from there,

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or is there another way that you've seen

work best for clients that maybe have

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passed that, a hundred product range?

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that's normally good start

is sold by top sellers.

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we have an automated, model, which is

going to be very difficult to build.

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So I'm not going to try to walk you

through how to build it, but what

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it does is you could, if anyone's

technical in Google shades, they'll

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be able to do this quite quickly.

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Which is you can take an order

export of all previous exports

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with product titles associated.

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And then you can do an equals

unique, pull in all unique titles

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into a separate sheet, and then

you can do an equals count.

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If title is in the order and you can

count how many orders are associated

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with each title, and then you can,

just do basic pivot tables and look

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at all the top selling products with

the associated gross margins that have

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already been tagged in there because

they're in the Shopify order export.

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And so you can actually

automate the whole thing.

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If you really want to get into the.

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technical details of it, but if you want

to be like start off basic, you have

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barely understood what I've ever been

talking about for the last five minutes.

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Just take the top five to 10 products,

get the gross margins on them, and then

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that's going to be a big indicator of

how you should be structuring campaigns

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across all platforms moving forward.

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Got it.

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No, that makes total sense.

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It's like one of those nice parts about

if you have all these products, you have

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tons of growth opportunities as you go

and develop it further down the line.

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So make the biggest impact first and

those top products makes total sense.

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and then as you grow from that,

then look for other opportunities.

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You might find that a product

that doesn't sell anything and

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hasn't sold, much at all, and

you've been using for a marketing.

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might actually be a really good

source of new customers and the

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contribution margin is great.

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So it makes a lot of sense having if

you can, like you're saying in that

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whole spreadsheet, organize it all.

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but if you just started out more

of a, smaller client, then makes

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a lot more sense to have it more.

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So from like the top down, what's

going to help us right away and

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then go from there for sure.

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And then there's also at the order level.

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So you can look at the product level and

that's Really helpful in terms of what

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products you should be prioritizing.

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cause as we said, if you have an agency

that isn't looking at margin at a product

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level, they might see a product performing

really well, and then go and push it.

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And in fact, I could almost guarantee

this is the case for probably

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clients that you manage right now.

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Clients that sold out, clients at other

agencies, which is brands that stock Nike

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or brands that stock like Adidas shoes.

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They will always have a ROAS, but the

distributor margin on those products, and

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like I know this because I've seen behind

what they sell for, it's about 18 to 22%.

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And so you're actually barely

profitable even at a 10 ROAS if you

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take into consideration shipping

costs and any kind of free shipping

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thresholds that are within your offer.

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So right away, an agency that's

not looking at gross margin or

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isn't looking at these things, Is

going, okay, that's a good product.

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Push it, let's push more spend to it.

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And you're just pushing a product

that has terrible gross margins.

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Isn't driving any profit.

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And then at the end of the quarter

or at the end of the year, when the

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Ecom operator gets their P and L,

they look at it and they go, what?

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Revenue's up 70 percent for

profits to say, profits down

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how is this even possible?

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And it's because they didn't have that

extra degree of nuance of looking at how

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much contribution profit was actually

being pushed an individual product level.

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That was a spiral away from

talking about orders though.

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And you can also do an order export

you can just look at contribution

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profit at an individual order level.

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The softwares that do this store hero

does this really good job at this.

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And so you can definitely look into store

hero or any other SaaS solution, but it's

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a simple equation, which is you take your

gross sales, you might as well discounts.

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You then minus off COGS, and then

you minus off an assumed 3 percent

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transaction fee, and then you minus off

an assumed shipping and fulfillment fee.

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You could pretty much get an average

based on your, historical 90 day data.

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And then you have profit contribution

at an individual order level.

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And then you can do a pivot table,

sort by lowest contribution profit,

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and you'll start to discover things

like, wow, we're selling this

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product, but it costs 16 to ship it.

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And the cogs are pretty high.

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We're getting 1 profit.

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And then you can go into your

Google campaign and go, how much

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are we spending on this product?

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And you'll go and look and

you'll see the CPA is 19.

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And you can go, we're just losing 18

on this product, trying to sell it.

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This is not a profitable order.

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or you might find that

people are combining.

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individual products in a way where

they're getting a discount, and

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it's ruining your margins again.

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Or you might find that when people hit a

free shipping threshold, once again, it

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erodes your margins again, and you start

having all these unprofitable orders.

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At the end of the day, what's the

point of fulfilling an order if

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there's no contribution profit on it?

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And so that's another really good analysis

that you can start to pull together.

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even if you were just to look at

yesterday's orders, or maybe two days

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worth of orders, you don't have to go

and look at historical three year order

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data, you could do this on much smaller,

More simplified time horizons so that

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you can get a better idea of identifying

where the inefficiencies are within

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the business and then Working on that.

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So what I'm hearing from all this, is be

careful of sales because you might find

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that, Oh yeah, our overall sales are up.

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But then you look at, like you were

saying, you're well, contribution

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margin is just not profitable.

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It's not worth it.

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I could see all the CFOs that are

just like, Oh my God, finally, someone

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that's like speaking my language.

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It's not just about rows.

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It's about actual like net profit sales.

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because I see that a lot in accounts

too, where, they'll run a sale and

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I'm like, Oh, we're doing great.

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NCAC is a lot better.

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Everything looks great profit.

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And then you go into the actual net

profit and you're like, wait a minute.

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Something's off.

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What happened?

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Oh, this product that, should

have been moved, didn't move.

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And they actually did a sale on this

other product that didn't have as

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big of a margin trying to move it.

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And so then it caused a lot of

other issues in the actual business.

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makes a lot of sense that contribution

margin and net profit is, The be

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all end all for a lot of different

angles when it comes to marketing.

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it's just hard to essentially, tell

the algorithm to optimize for it.

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You have to be aware of the actual

financial side of the business too.

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which for, marketers like me

that are more on the creative

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side of things, it's a headache.

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And so having tools that allow you to do

that, like you're talking about just in

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spreadsheets, simplify the process a lot.

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And especially if.

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you have a business owner that,

can't afford a CFO or, wants to make

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this a lot easier in the process

of just saying, okay, I need to

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get 80 percent accurate with this.

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you could totally do that in a

spreadsheet, like we're talking about.

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that's a huge value, bomb for people just

because it's, I still have clients that

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will be looking at end up numbers and I'm

trying to slowly pull them away from it.

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And it's going from okay,

we're not looking at ROAS.

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We're looking at, global,

like what's your MIR?

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What's your, It's okay, now let's

look at your overall profitability.

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It's like slowly trying to

pull them away from that.

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for the case of just, helping them

understand like net profit is the

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be all end all for everything.

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even LTV, you can't fully rely on.

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So that's an added benefit of

looking at contribution margin

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is it will take out discounting.

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And so if you're running discounting,

it will appear within the

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contribution margin that you're

reporting on a day to day basis.

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I also visualize this for clients it's

hard to conceptualize this if you're not

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in the weeds of finance, but what this

shows, and there's a lot of numbers on the

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screen, but the premise of it is that as

you increase discounting from 5 to 40%,

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your breakeven ROAS goes up significantly.

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And so if you're running a 20 percent

discount, you no longer need a 1.

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8 ROAS to be breaking even, you need a 2.

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But more importantly, if you have a

target contribution profit per order,

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your target ROAS goes up exponentially.

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And you can see that in the graph here,

because you're approaching an asthmatope,

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which is the target contribution, and

so you don't have much to work with.

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And so it squeezes so quickly, so much

faster than anyone typically thinks.

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Which is that, Oh, we'll

do a 20 percent discount.

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And yeah, okay.

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We need a little bit of a better

ROAS, but it's no, you now need like

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ROAS because you've cut your profit,

which was on the top end in half.

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If you're operating on,

let's say 30%, gross margin.

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So I thought that was a really good way

to visualize for clients that as you

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start to escalate in discounting, you need

your units per transaction to increase.

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So you need your average order

value to inflate as well.

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you can't just be discounting and

expecting that a higher ROAS is going

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to drive more profit because it won't.

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So I guess going further down that

pathway for clients that have a good

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LTV, so what would you say is the

impact of contribution margin and

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the relationship of that with and

how do you look at it in that sense?

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this is the thing about LTV is.

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I think people hear LTV and then

they think they know what it is

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or they can conceptualize how it

applies into campaigns and that's

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what I really don't like about it.

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I made a LinkedIn post about this a

couple of weeks ago and it's because

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everyone comments this on all my

posts I put up which is I'll put up a

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post about something technical about

contribution margin, on first order

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or the importance of first order

profitability and someone will come in

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with Yeah, but what about the LTV and

I'm like that's it's so the reason why

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I have an issue with it is to number one

There's a time decay associated with LTV.

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And so when we're talking about

LTV, what are we talking about?

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We're talking about 30 day.

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We're talking about 90 day.

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Are we talking about lifetime LTV?

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So since the inception of the company What

is the lifetime value being since then?

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Because as you start to go out in

time you start to increase number one

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your risk and number two your cost of

capital You Because if you're going

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to be acquiring customers and hoping

for profits to unlock over a very long

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time period, there's a huge cost of

capital in just pulling that forward.

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and then the second reason I don't

like it is because it's revenue based.

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It's telling you how much revenue

you're getting from a customer over

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its lifetime, but if you look at the

unit economics of any brand, and you

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break down first time versus returning

customers, and once again, you can do

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this in Excel sheets just out of the

back end of Shopify, you'll almost always

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see returning customers are getting

like average of 30 percent discounts.

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And the reason being is that the brand is

just sending emails with 20 percent off

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codes, 30 percent off codes, 40 percent

off codes to try to get people back.

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And so these customers profit

contribution is so minimal.

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And then factor it on top of all of that

is that most advertisers are spending

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20 percent of their budget on existing

customers and they don't even know it

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because they're running Pmax and Advantage

And so now you also have a CAC associated

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with getting these customers back.

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And so you run all the math

and it's easy math to run.

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You can go a hundred dollar

average order value, LTV is 200.

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we've doubled the profitability of the

customer, but really let's say that

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we're taking 30 percent discounts.

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Okay.

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So now it's really only like 70, 170

in revenue, maybe 160 in revenue.

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and then you take into consideration

that there's maybe a 10 CAC there and

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you're like, okay, it's only like 150 and

now it's a completely different story.

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Because if you were looking at, okay,

we double the profit of a customer over

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time, and you were using that to KPI and

benchmark the entire business, but you

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look into the details and you actually,

these returning customers aren't driving

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any profit or very minimal profit.

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We're in a very different position.

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We shouldn't be scaling acquisition.

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We should be fixing acquisition

first and potentially we should be

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changing our retention strategy.

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So we're not discounting.

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So heavily as well.

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: 00:15:51

it makes sense.

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: 00:15:51

I think the idea of in that graph you

showed earlier, it was a really good

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representation of that is start with

a very small discount, see who bites,

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take them out of the list, your email

list, wherever the case may be, and

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then go to the next process and see how

far you can push it until you hit that

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actual point of diminishing returns.

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Whether it's 10%, 20%, 30%, 50%,

who knows, based on your business.

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that's where you'll find

the most profit from it.

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And I've actually, talked to clients in

the past about that and it saved them

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a lot of money and actually allowed us

to increase our volume on just going

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after new customers because they didn't

realize that their LTV was actually

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eating into their net profits like crazy.

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so something just like that can

really change a business from.

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Both the financial side

and the marketing side.

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whenever, we hear CFOs, it's

okay, like I got to try to

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explain to them what's going on.

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But then they're also coming

at it from their angle.

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: 00:16:35

It's yes, I know what you're saying,

but I'm also trying to explain to you,

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what's going to actually make us money.

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: 00:16:38

And so it's up to both sides to understand

like what the algorithm, but also,

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okay, from the, actual acquisition side

of it, is it actual benefit or not?

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It might look better for us, but we

don't know if that's actually true.

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I think that gives a really

good understanding of

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contribution margin though.

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: 00:16:51

we went through contribution margin went

through a few different ways that you can.

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look for inefficiencies, order,

product level, and then LTV.

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it's not what you, not what

it seems on the front end.

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So making sure that you are also

tracking contribution margin

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across the lifetime of customers.

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: 00:17:06

Perfect.

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: 00:17:06

I love the insight.

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: 00:17:07

we don't really get much of this

from just the space in general.

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: 00:17:10

It's too focused on in

app and what's going on.

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: 00:17:13

if people want to learn more

about you and, get more insights,

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: 00:17:15

where can they find you?

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: 00:17:16

the first thing is the YouTube channel, so

I'll give the link to you, you can scroll,

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: 00:17:20

look at the below, it's Bluesense Digital.

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: 00:17:23

The second is the podcast, it's more

longer format if you want to hear

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me talking for an hour and a half

straight to some people in Australia.

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: 00:17:29

it's Blues Brothers Podcast.

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: 00:17:30

And then LinkedIn is the

easiest way to message me.

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: 00:17:33

If you want to ask any questions

about any of this CFO jargon

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: 00:17:37

that I like to talk about.

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: 00:17:38

That would definitely be

me as well, but awesome.

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: 00:17:41

thanks for coming on.

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: 00:17:41

And like I said, we'll probably,

have you on more just to give some

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more insight for us all and I guess

demystified the CFO side of things.

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Thanks again, Nathan.